Back in December, Rainer Strack, a Senior Partner and Managing Director at Boston Consulting Group presented a TED talk on the workforce crisis of 2030 (see below), and the business, culture and government changes needed to prevent widespread labour shortages.
A report released last year by BCG, suggests that the culmination of slow economic growth, aging populations, low birth rates and restrictive immigration politics will result in widespread workforce shortages that will risk over $10 trillion dollars in world GDP.
How The Labour Shortages Will Affect The World
The report details how these labour shortages are expected to affect various countries, including:
Thanks to our commodity-rich economy, we were able to continue growing through the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century—successfully insulating ourselves from the global downturn. The report highlights that if we continue on this trajectory and maintains our GDP growth of above 3.0 percent, it is likely that we will experience a severe labor shortage by 2030.
Germany will see a shortage of up to 2.4 million workers by 2020 and up to 10 million by 2030—23 percent of the labor supply. The country will not reach its historical GDP growth rates unless it takes action soon.
Brazil will have a shortage of up to 8.5 million workers in 2020; by 2030, that figure could increase nearly fivefold to 40.9 million people—at 33 percent of the labor supply, more than 10 percent worse than Germany’s and the highest projected 2030 shortage of the 25 nations studied.
China is expected to have a surplus of 55.2 million to 75.3 million workers by 2020. By 2030, that surplus could reverse sharply, turning into a shortage of up to 24.5 million people.
The U.s is expected to have a surplus of between 17.1 million and 22 million people in 2020. By 2030, it will still face a surplus—at a minimum, 7.4 million.
France, Italy, and the UK,
All three countries are projected to have single-digit surpluses in 2020, face labor shortages by the subsequent decade.
South Africa faces the gloomiest prospects, with a projected surplus of 36 percent in 2020 that’s expected to grow to 39 percent by 2030.
What We Can Do To Prevent A Workforce Crisis
The report suggests four fundamental actions must be taken to mitigate these workforce shortfalls, including
Boosting productivity through capital investment in infrastructure, innovation, technology, and social and training programs in order to help underqualified and less-educated working-age people improve their employability.
Support Women Into The Workforce
Increasing the participation rate by encouraging women to take part in the labor force, raising the retirement age, promoting jobs for the elderly, and increasing yearly working-hour totals.
Increasing immigration and mobility by easing immigration norms, cultivating the cross-border talent pool, and taking advantage of technology for virtual collaboration and mobility.
Encourage higher birth rates, which are ultimately essential for sustaining economic growth and healthy demographic ratios. However, the impact of this action has a time delay of at least 15 years.
You can watch the full 12-minute video below.
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